"Even if another Republican manages to capture the nomination, there’s no guarantee that Trump—who is not known for his grace in defeat—will go away. Last month, Trump caused a minor panic in GOP circles when he shared an article on Truth Social suggesting that he might run an independent spoiler campaign if his party refuses to back him in 2024. The Republicans I talked with said such a schism would be politically catastrophic for their party. No one had any ideas about how to prevent it."
Those last two sentences are telling. The GOP knows where this is headed, and it knows there is no escape. And this is the trap they've laid for themselves since 2016.
I've thought for a while now that once Trump declared his candidacy, that was the end of any GOP hopes for winning the White House in 2024. If Trump wins the nomination, that's bad, because he will probably lose in the general election. If Trump loses the nomination, he will attack the GOP for rigging the primaries against him, run third party taking his cult with him, and destroy the GOP candidates down ballot. The doomsday scenario for the GOP isn't Trump getting the nomination, it's Trump losing the nomination.
I've got bad news for all of those Republican magical thinkers: Trump is probably not going to die anytime soon. Actuarial odds say the average 76-year-old American will live another 10 years. That's at least 2 or 3 presidential election cycles for Trump. Now consider that Trump is exceedingly wealthy, lets add three years for that. Now add a few years for having access to the best medical care in the world as a former president. Yeah, he's definitely going to be weighing in on the next three elections cycles. Maybe four.
"But he eats too many hamburgers!" they say. "He doesn't believe in exercise! He'll have a heart attack or a stroke! Even if he lives that long his brain will turn to mush!"
This is American! Everyone eats too many hamburgers and watches too much TV, and his most excellent doctors will be pumping him full of the pharmaceutical equivalent of Drano probably until he's 90. If you live near an academic medical center they can stent just about any blood vessel you have.
Voters didn't care when Fetterman was aphasic up against the perfectly well-spoken Dr. Oz. Voters didn't care that Herschel Walker couldn't string a sentence together. Those 25% Trump ride or die voters aren't going to care if Trump conducts his rallies from a motorized wheel chair shouting partially formed sentences. Elocution is not high on their list of priorities in a leader.
The best scenario for the country might be that trump loses the primary and opts to run as an Independent, keeping the feckless GOP who are in favor of a newer, slicker trump, who won't come out of "private" conversations to denounce trump, out of the White House.
We have to stop looking at everything as a "trump" problem. Look across the country and in the new GOP House majority - we have a GOP problem and have had it all through trump's reign of terror.
Not surprising. Trump is loyal only to Trump and will take the party down with him if he doesn't get his way.
I'm no expert, but I would still expect someone like Youngkin to pick up steam as we move deeper into the election cycle and DeSantis is exposed for the charisma black hole that he is. I'm not a fan, but Youngkin successfully walked the MAGA tightrope while still appealing to moderates in VA.
The Jim Jordan/Deep State mantra is straight out of the Russia playbook. I post a link to the book "Nothing is True and Everything is Possible" here about every six months because it is so relevant to the national Republican Party playbook. (Seriously, READ IT!!!!)
As the NY Times reviewer of the book noted, "'Reality' is scripted by the dark forces inside the Kremlin. Fake opposition parties engage in fake opposition to those who rule, a fake justice system goes through the motions of the legal process, and the fake television news shapes what Russia’s 143 million citizens are allowed to see."
Fortunately, we do not have a fake justice system and we do have non-fake news, but millions of Americans believe that the justice system is rigged, and they only get their news from Fox/online grifters (i.e., fake news). And we have boatloads of alternate universe grifters who are, in the words of Steve Bannon, happy to spray BS everywhere so that "truth" is whatever you want it to be. When people say that the whole Russia thing is a hoax, they are missing the point; Trump et al. adopted the Kremlin playbook to undermine democracy. Jordan et al. are going to try to mainstream Russia's efforts.
Read this sad article about teachers in Florida having to remove or hid their classroom libraries until their books are put on a centralized “approved” list. Personally I wasn’t a very happy child — books were my refuge. I feel for these teachers and kids.
Hide your books to avoid felony charges, Fla. schools tell teachers
TRUMP: If Trump loses the nomination, it's almost certain he'll claim the selection process was rigged. Bring popcorn.
Much as I appreciate the work of the January 6th committee, if their laser focus on Trump gives us President DeSantis, we will be no better off than if they had never convened. Maybe worse. If helps to brings about a political civil war that wrecks the Republican Party, they will have done a great service. It's complicated.
COVID: People who have had even mild acute illness are more likely to experience serious illnesses in the year after "recovering." And it is affecting the availability of workers.
Not only are substantial numbers of people too ill to work after COVID, but there are those who are out of work because they must care for sick relatives.
The difference between the two parties re COVID is that Democrats are minimizing the problem while Republicans are actively working to make it worse. Even the most cold-blooded economic pragmatists ought to be concerned about the effects on the economy and the stress on the healthcare system.
The data from the poll and Sarah's discussion of it confirms (to me) my earlier belief that Trump (barring death or incapacitation) will be the 2024 GoP nominee. Because he can torch the GoP in 2024 if he isn't--and you KNOW he would do it.
And I am pretty sure everybody who is anybody in the GoP also knows it.
You combine this with the whole wishful thinking/Deus Ex Machina approach of the GoP to solving the "Trump Problem" and voila, he is in. Because no one is going to stand toe to toe with him. None of them have enough spine.
Even if Trump goes quietly into that good night (roflmao, ya right) I believe that his disappearance will suppress GoP voting in the general, probably enough to flip some close states.
Another caveat to the polls: these are all taken inside of a pre-indictment environment.
When Atlanta and DOJ indict Trump, these opinion numbers are going to change, especially within the Always-Trump crowd. Some will double down and follow Trump down the “I’m being persecuted!” trail, but enough of that 28-30% are going to bleed off once the writing is on the charging documents because they’ll understand Trump’s chances of winning, and thereby keeping the dems out of power, is going to be a much tougher slog with Trump walking in and out of criminal court during the run up.
Trump is like Tesla: his losses haven’t ended yet. And once his market capitalization takes a real hit this year via indictments the “Always-Trumpers” who don’t want to see a second Biden term will start to redo their political calculations. The people who never paid attention to politics until Trump came in are the true “Always-Trumpers.” Everyone else is just hedging their bets. The hedging will shift in a post-indictment world.
One question any candidate that’s not Trump is going to have to answer is whether they’ll give him a pardon. That definitely seems like a no-win to me.
As to the hope he dies strategy, it’s way too late. Marge Greene is the most powerful person in the House and probably second to Trump in the party. Stefanik is my rep and I think it’s hilarious to see her trying to wear the “Ultra MAGA” mantle. Marge is running the House, not those people who think they’re in leadership. Let them try to do something she disagrees with.
It feels like the new right is going to have to get behind the notion that convicted felons should be able to vote, or they will kiss goodbye a significant portion of their electorate. Rename it the John Gotti Party. Everywhere you look, someone's being investigated or indicted.
I like the notion that Kerri Lake is the governor after all. She'll probably resign and go for VP with Trump.
As a pharmacist, I’ve spent countless hours trying to compassionately and non-judgmentally answer people’s questions and allay concerns about Covid and the the Covid vaccine while trying to be as honest as possible about what we know and don’t know and what in hindsight, could have been handled better. All this is much more difficult because of hyper partisanship, distrust of institutions and experts and rampant misinformation and conspiracy theories.
Cathy Young’s excellently researched and well-sourced piece addresses many of these issues in one of best pieces on Covid I’ve read in a long time.
I think if Trump sinks the GOP, this might be a good thing. Perhaps the more intelligent and reasonable conservatives will realize that fascist/populism isn't a winning strategy. Some people don't like Biden, but his ratings are better than a lot of incumbent Presidents. He has a lot of good accomplishments under his belt.
I don't give credence to the Classified documents scandal because, if anything, it make the National Archives look careless with their procedures. I would bet every ex president and VP has a few in a drawer at home. Trump is different since he had so many, knew he had them, lied about it and then refused to return them.
So the best scenario would be Trump splits the vote and tanks the GOP. The crazies lose in the next midterms or quit and start their own party, and the GOP cleans house.
Also from the McKay Coppins article:
"Even if another Republican manages to capture the nomination, there’s no guarantee that Trump—who is not known for his grace in defeat—will go away. Last month, Trump caused a minor panic in GOP circles when he shared an article on Truth Social suggesting that he might run an independent spoiler campaign if his party refuses to back him in 2024. The Republicans I talked with said such a schism would be politically catastrophic for their party. No one had any ideas about how to prevent it."
Those last two sentences are telling. The GOP knows where this is headed, and it knows there is no escape. And this is the trap they've laid for themselves since 2016.
I've thought for a while now that once Trump declared his candidacy, that was the end of any GOP hopes for winning the White House in 2024. If Trump wins the nomination, that's bad, because he will probably lose in the general election. If Trump loses the nomination, he will attack the GOP for rigging the primaries against him, run third party taking his cult with him, and destroy the GOP candidates down ballot. The doomsday scenario for the GOP isn't Trump getting the nomination, it's Trump losing the nomination.
Dilemma for the GOP = Good news for the rest of the country. Hopefully Trump sinks the GOP for the next century.
I've got bad news for all of those Republican magical thinkers: Trump is probably not going to die anytime soon. Actuarial odds say the average 76-year-old American will live another 10 years. That's at least 2 or 3 presidential election cycles for Trump. Now consider that Trump is exceedingly wealthy, lets add three years for that. Now add a few years for having access to the best medical care in the world as a former president. Yeah, he's definitely going to be weighing in on the next three elections cycles. Maybe four.
"But he eats too many hamburgers!" they say. "He doesn't believe in exercise! He'll have a heart attack or a stroke! Even if he lives that long his brain will turn to mush!"
This is American! Everyone eats too many hamburgers and watches too much TV, and his most excellent doctors will be pumping him full of the pharmaceutical equivalent of Drano probably until he's 90. If you live near an academic medical center they can stent just about any blood vessel you have.
Voters didn't care when Fetterman was aphasic up against the perfectly well-spoken Dr. Oz. Voters didn't care that Herschel Walker couldn't string a sentence together. Those 25% Trump ride or die voters aren't going to care if Trump conducts his rallies from a motorized wheel chair shouting partially formed sentences. Elocution is not high on their list of priorities in a leader.
The best scenario for the country might be that trump loses the primary and opts to run as an Independent, keeping the feckless GOP who are in favor of a newer, slicker trump, who won't come out of "private" conversations to denounce trump, out of the White House.
We have to stop looking at everything as a "trump" problem. Look across the country and in the new GOP House majority - we have a GOP problem and have had it all through trump's reign of terror.
One in three sounds about right - and as JVL and Sarah keep saying - one in three registered republicans is still millions ..
Not surprising. Trump is loyal only to Trump and will take the party down with him if he doesn't get his way.
I'm no expert, but I would still expect someone like Youngkin to pick up steam as we move deeper into the election cycle and DeSantis is exposed for the charisma black hole that he is. I'm not a fan, but Youngkin successfully walked the MAGA tightrope while still appealing to moderates in VA.
Someone needs to call out Trump to "man up" and just go third party. How 'manly' can he be if he is just a cuck to a party that doesn't want him?
Then I just sit back with the popcorn and watch that shit-show play out
The Jim Jordan/Deep State mantra is straight out of the Russia playbook. I post a link to the book "Nothing is True and Everything is Possible" here about every six months because it is so relevant to the national Republican Party playbook. (Seriously, READ IT!!!!)
As the NY Times reviewer of the book noted, "'Reality' is scripted by the dark forces inside the Kremlin. Fake opposition parties engage in fake opposition to those who rule, a fake justice system goes through the motions of the legal process, and the fake television news shapes what Russia’s 143 million citizens are allowed to see."
Fortunately, we do not have a fake justice system and we do have non-fake news, but millions of Americans believe that the justice system is rigged, and they only get their news from Fox/online grifters (i.e., fake news). And we have boatloads of alternate universe grifters who are, in the words of Steve Bannon, happy to spray BS everywhere so that "truth" is whatever you want it to be. When people say that the whole Russia thing is a hoax, they are missing the point; Trump et al. adopted the Kremlin playbook to undermine democracy. Jordan et al. are going to try to mainstream Russia's efforts.
Read this sad article about teachers in Florida having to remove or hid their classroom libraries until their books are put on a centralized “approved” list. Personally I wasn’t a very happy child — books were my refuge. I feel for these teachers and kids.
Hide your books to avoid felony charges, Fla. schools tell teachers
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2023/01/31/florida-hide-books-stop-woke-manatee-county-duval-county-desantis/
TRUMP: If Trump loses the nomination, it's almost certain he'll claim the selection process was rigged. Bring popcorn.
Much as I appreciate the work of the January 6th committee, if their laser focus on Trump gives us President DeSantis, we will be no better off than if they had never convened. Maybe worse. If helps to brings about a political civil war that wrecks the Republican Party, they will have done a great service. It's complicated.
COVID: People who have had even mild acute illness are more likely to experience serious illnesses in the year after "recovering." And it is affecting the availability of workers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/business/economy/uk-economy-sick-workers.html
https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf23307
Not only are substantial numbers of people too ill to work after COVID, but there are those who are out of work because they must care for sick relatives.
The difference between the two parties re COVID is that Democrats are minimizing the problem while Republicans are actively working to make it worse. Even the most cold-blooded economic pragmatists ought to be concerned about the effects on the economy and the stress on the healthcare system.
The data from the poll and Sarah's discussion of it confirms (to me) my earlier belief that Trump (barring death or incapacitation) will be the 2024 GoP nominee. Because he can torch the GoP in 2024 if he isn't--and you KNOW he would do it.
And I am pretty sure everybody who is anybody in the GoP also knows it.
You combine this with the whole wishful thinking/Deus Ex Machina approach of the GoP to solving the "Trump Problem" and voila, he is in. Because no one is going to stand toe to toe with him. None of them have enough spine.
Even if Trump goes quietly into that good night (roflmao, ya right) I believe that his disappearance will suppress GoP voting in the general, probably enough to flip some close states.
Another caveat to the polls: these are all taken inside of a pre-indictment environment.
When Atlanta and DOJ indict Trump, these opinion numbers are going to change, especially within the Always-Trump crowd. Some will double down and follow Trump down the “I’m being persecuted!” trail, but enough of that 28-30% are going to bleed off once the writing is on the charging documents because they’ll understand Trump’s chances of winning, and thereby keeping the dems out of power, is going to be a much tougher slog with Trump walking in and out of criminal court during the run up.
Trump is like Tesla: his losses haven’t ended yet. And once his market capitalization takes a real hit this year via indictments the “Always-Trumpers” who don’t want to see a second Biden term will start to redo their political calculations. The people who never paid attention to politics until Trump came in are the true “Always-Trumpers.” Everyone else is just hedging their bets. The hedging will shift in a post-indictment world.
One question any candidate that’s not Trump is going to have to answer is whether they’ll give him a pardon. That definitely seems like a no-win to me.
As to the hope he dies strategy, it’s way too late. Marge Greene is the most powerful person in the House and probably second to Trump in the party. Stefanik is my rep and I think it’s hilarious to see her trying to wear the “Ultra MAGA” mantle. Marge is running the House, not those people who think they’re in leadership. Let them try to do something she disagrees with.
It feels like the new right is going to have to get behind the notion that convicted felons should be able to vote, or they will kiss goodbye a significant portion of their electorate. Rename it the John Gotti Party. Everywhere you look, someone's being investigated or indicted.
I like the notion that Kerri Lake is the governor after all. She'll probably resign and go for VP with Trump.
As a pharmacist, I’ve spent countless hours trying to compassionately and non-judgmentally answer people’s questions and allay concerns about Covid and the the Covid vaccine while trying to be as honest as possible about what we know and don’t know and what in hindsight, could have been handled better. All this is much more difficult because of hyper partisanship, distrust of institutions and experts and rampant misinformation and conspiracy theories.
Cathy Young’s excellently researched and well-sourced piece addresses many of these issues in one of best pieces on Covid I’ve read in a long time.
I think if Trump sinks the GOP, this might be a good thing. Perhaps the more intelligent and reasonable conservatives will realize that fascist/populism isn't a winning strategy. Some people don't like Biden, but his ratings are better than a lot of incumbent Presidents. He has a lot of good accomplishments under his belt.
I don't give credence to the Classified documents scandal because, if anything, it make the National Archives look careless with their procedures. I would bet every ex president and VP has a few in a drawer at home. Trump is different since he had so many, knew he had them, lied about it and then refused to return them.
So the best scenario would be Trump splits the vote and tanks the GOP. The crazies lose in the next midterms or quit and start their own party, and the GOP cleans house.