I hate to break it to any GOP 2024 presidential hopefuls, but if Trump declares, primary season will be canceled. There is no option for the party other than Trump if Trump declares. If he loses in the primary, he runs third party, and the Democrats take the election. If he is the nominee uncontested, Democrats will walk through fire to vote against him. Best case for the GOP right now is Trump decides not to run, but that conflicts with what's best for Donald Trump, and no one has any doubt whose interests win out there.
"Why not retire as two-time undisputed champion of the party than risk being ignominiously knocked out by a leaner, hungrier fighter?"
Because Trump does not vote this as a victory. It's a decision made from a position of weakness, and that is intolerable for him. He will always know that he ran from the fight, and running is something he can never allow himself to do. DeSantis's growing popularity makes him *more* likely to run, not less
Republicans should by now know that Trump represents himself first and foremost and so he will run, irrespective of whether other Rs have a better match up against the Democratic candidates or not. Running might also just allow him to avoid having to answer to all the shenanigans in the days and months leading up to Jan 6th (since the DOJ values being "non-partisan" over bringing justice) and he will happily play the victim card about how the establishment and RINOs are out to stop his crusade. The only question is if he will announce his intention prior to the mid-terms or wait. & judging by how he handled the Georgia run-offs last January, he is likely to put himself first and announce before. The Republicans deserve it too and frankly that is best for the nation. Trump will find a way to drag everybody down and suck them into highlighting/defeding his agenda. Trumpism has expanded beyond Trump and the only way the Rs will exercise self-control is if they are defeated in the elections (again). Having Trump announce he will run is the surest way to ensure that defeat.
I disagree that Uvalde was a "systemic failure". This is only true when a proper system and process do not exist. The fact is they had a system and process, it just wasn't followed. This was a failure to do a job, not a failure of the system. Use of "systemic failure" is a dodge, pure and simple.
Have the red states figured out what their lone state economic picture would look like without federal support, their trade policies with the US, their foreign policies ? Will they merge with other red states to form their new union of sorts? What about their change in demographics when companies and people choose to stay American and go elsewhere and when US military or research programs are removed from their new country? Will they build walls to keep their citizens, particularly women, in and other, particularly immigrants, out? Somewhere someone has done this work - where is it?
Most people don't want Trump again, and have soured on the GOP after its unending, bottomless cesspool of fealty to him and what he stands for.
Most people don't want Biden, for age reasons or otherwise, and have soured on the Democrats because of their innate inability to come together, take charge, and get things done.
Most people are dissatisfied with the two-party system and the binary either-or option that seems to yield only two choices anymore: bad and worse.
So, what the hell will it take for most people to talk and act seriously about establishing a viable third party that gives the many of us in the center-left and center-right a better choice than simply "we're not as bad as the other side"?
1) You can't get police reform without getting rid of police unions. We learned this with BLM. You can't get police reform if the unions fight you tooth and nail every step of the way and make it into a political "back the blue" issue when changing the way police train, recruit, and promote people. The cops will keep fucking up with impunity as an organization until we dismantle police unions across the nation and assert REAL civilian oversight. Otherwise, they're just a gang with badges and no accountability funded by tax payers. They do good things, but the bad things they do as an institute and still refuse to change is beginning to outweigh the good they do. As someone who carries, I worry about how scared and trigger-happy cops are. Pussies with guns and immunity from accountability.
2) Sarah is right, it's about *MAGA Populism* and punishing the liberals at all costs, which means that if Trump is a potential roadblock to retaining power and punishing liberals, they will jettison his ass in favor of Ron DeSantis who will have a better shot at winning--and thereby getting the power they can use to punish liberals with. MAGA = "a policy platform of punishing liberals". Once you understand their collective motives, MAGA voters/pols are much easier to predict behaviorally as a cohort.
I would consider it something of a Black Swan event if Trump didn't run (barring some sort of health collapse or his death).
I think a lot of GoP people are trying hard to convince themselves that he won't run and that they can have Trumpism w/o Trump and maybe win without having to cook the books.
Trump fatigue is little more than a feel-good if Trumpism continues unabated, like celebrating a symptom that is in decline while the disease continues to ravage the body.
The worst fear remains that a competent Trumpist wins the presidency while backed by a Congress that will do his/her bidding with the same fear of their constituency that we see now. The only bright spot seems to be that a smarter, less vain Trumpist might appoint some competent critical personnel to key offices -- but if they are fully compliant, it really doesn't change the outcome. We're screwed for at least a generation to come, likely more, if these people get within even the zip code of the White House again.
Trump views running in 2024 as his ticket to avoid DOJ investigations and any looming trials.
Merrick Garland sent a memo to all DOJ employees reminding them to avoid any appearance of partisanship in investigations and to confirm Bill Barr’s memo of 2020 which requires the Atty General to sign off before any investigation into any declared presidential or vice presidential candidates is undertaken.
Trump has been awarded his stay out of jail card. Why wouldn’t he run?
All is going according to my liberal best case scenario. Add the strong DeSantis polling with primary voters in NH and MI, and we definitely have the makings of a GOP split that gives the Dems the advantage in 2024 regardless who the nominee is. And if Trump's key motivation is to stay revenant--along with the benefit of shielding him from prosecution--he'll announce in Sept and save the Dem Senate.
At best this GOP Trump fatigue (which is very real) splits the party enough that a DeSantis nomination results in Trump running third party. That's the best scenario. But Trump as the GOP nominee gives ANY Dem a major advantage. The worst case scenario is a united GOP behind DeSantis or another Jr. fascist.
I do recall Agnew's prose but It indeed was very different then than it is now. Then? We had three networks, CNN and PBS and in reality, they all did a good job of adhering to factual reporting.
Now? We have those same networks but we also have FOX, OAN and NEWSMAX not only not reporting the news based on facts but rather based almost entirely in opinion. Limbaugh was early on reporting opinions dressed as facts and he was careful to never call it "the news. Trump used all of this to start digging under the foundation of fact as a man who had avoided facts and tortured the truth his entire life.
It will be damn hard for the media to "get it right" when much of it doesn't want to at all.
'Zactly, Living in TX I run into these goofballs all the time. Who's gonna stop the US Gov't when they demand the return of all the F16's, F111's and military ground equipment? National Wx Service ops, the THOUSANDS of square miles of US Military bases (both open & closed- which were granted to the states when closed), interstate highways, US Gov't jobs? THEN these whackadoodle states have to replicate all that to protect themselves from Mexico coming in to reclaim what was once theirs. Once again and as almost always, it's all performative. The ironic thing is that many of the most fervent supporters of these scenarios are Veterans.
I'm glad to read that Hershel Walker has voices in his head to guide him through life.
Considering his usual delusional rantings, I figured Hersh just free forms concepts from words flying in and out of his brain.
It is sad that 46% of Republican Georgians really don't care having a totally incompetent Senator.
But then GOP Iowans are willing to give an 88 year old another 6 years in the Senate.
"And you don't believe we're on the Eve of Dysfunction?"🤪
Praising Scott Walker? He's anti-education, anti-worker, pro-crony capitalism. He's a bad dude
I hate to break it to any GOP 2024 presidential hopefuls, but if Trump declares, primary season will be canceled. There is no option for the party other than Trump if Trump declares. If he loses in the primary, he runs third party, and the Democrats take the election. If he is the nominee uncontested, Democrats will walk through fire to vote against him. Best case for the GOP right now is Trump decides not to run, but that conflicts with what's best for Donald Trump, and no one has any doubt whose interests win out there.
"Why not retire as two-time undisputed champion of the party than risk being ignominiously knocked out by a leaner, hungrier fighter?"
Because Trump does not vote this as a victory. It's a decision made from a position of weakness, and that is intolerable for him. He will always know that he ran from the fight, and running is something he can never allow himself to do. DeSantis's growing popularity makes him *more* likely to run, not less
Republicans should by now know that Trump represents himself first and foremost and so he will run, irrespective of whether other Rs have a better match up against the Democratic candidates or not. Running might also just allow him to avoid having to answer to all the shenanigans in the days and months leading up to Jan 6th (since the DOJ values being "non-partisan" over bringing justice) and he will happily play the victim card about how the establishment and RINOs are out to stop his crusade. The only question is if he will announce his intention prior to the mid-terms or wait. & judging by how he handled the Georgia run-offs last January, he is likely to put himself first and announce before. The Republicans deserve it too and frankly that is best for the nation. Trump will find a way to drag everybody down and suck them into highlighting/defeding his agenda. Trumpism has expanded beyond Trump and the only way the Rs will exercise self-control is if they are defeated in the elections (again). Having Trump announce he will run is the surest way to ensure that defeat.
I disagree that Uvalde was a "systemic failure". This is only true when a proper system and process do not exist. The fact is they had a system and process, it just wasn't followed. This was a failure to do a job, not a failure of the system. Use of "systemic failure" is a dodge, pure and simple.
Have the red states figured out what their lone state economic picture would look like without federal support, their trade policies with the US, their foreign policies ? Will they merge with other red states to form their new union of sorts? What about their change in demographics when companies and people choose to stay American and go elsewhere and when US military or research programs are removed from their new country? Will they build walls to keep their citizens, particularly women, in and other, particularly immigrants, out? Somewhere someone has done this work - where is it?
Most people don't want Trump again, and have soured on the GOP after its unending, bottomless cesspool of fealty to him and what he stands for.
Most people don't want Biden, for age reasons or otherwise, and have soured on the Democrats because of their innate inability to come together, take charge, and get things done.
Most people are dissatisfied with the two-party system and the binary either-or option that seems to yield only two choices anymore: bad and worse.
So, what the hell will it take for most people to talk and act seriously about establishing a viable third party that gives the many of us in the center-left and center-right a better choice than simply "we're not as bad as the other side"?
Asking for a friend. And for myself.
1) You can't get police reform without getting rid of police unions. We learned this with BLM. You can't get police reform if the unions fight you tooth and nail every step of the way and make it into a political "back the blue" issue when changing the way police train, recruit, and promote people. The cops will keep fucking up with impunity as an organization until we dismantle police unions across the nation and assert REAL civilian oversight. Otherwise, they're just a gang with badges and no accountability funded by tax payers. They do good things, but the bad things they do as an institute and still refuse to change is beginning to outweigh the good they do. As someone who carries, I worry about how scared and trigger-happy cops are. Pussies with guns and immunity from accountability.
2) Sarah is right, it's about *MAGA Populism* and punishing the liberals at all costs, which means that if Trump is a potential roadblock to retaining power and punishing liberals, they will jettison his ass in favor of Ron DeSantis who will have a better shot at winning--and thereby getting the power they can use to punish liberals with. MAGA = "a policy platform of punishing liberals". Once you understand their collective motives, MAGA voters/pols are much easier to predict behaviorally as a cohort.
Interesting that the “fake news” chant resonates with Magadom, but their leaders can lie and get caught time and again and they’re ok with it.
I would consider it something of a Black Swan event if Trump didn't run (barring some sort of health collapse or his death).
I think a lot of GoP people are trying hard to convince themselves that he won't run and that they can have Trumpism w/o Trump and maybe win without having to cook the books.
Trump fatigue is little more than a feel-good if Trumpism continues unabated, like celebrating a symptom that is in decline while the disease continues to ravage the body.
The worst fear remains that a competent Trumpist wins the presidency while backed by a Congress that will do his/her bidding with the same fear of their constituency that we see now. The only bright spot seems to be that a smarter, less vain Trumpist might appoint some competent critical personnel to key offices -- but if they are fully compliant, it really doesn't change the outcome. We're screwed for at least a generation to come, likely more, if these people get within even the zip code of the White House again.
Trump views running in 2024 as his ticket to avoid DOJ investigations and any looming trials.
Merrick Garland sent a memo to all DOJ employees reminding them to avoid any appearance of partisanship in investigations and to confirm Bill Barr’s memo of 2020 which requires the Atty General to sign off before any investigation into any declared presidential or vice presidential candidates is undertaken.
Trump has been awarded his stay out of jail card. Why wouldn’t he run?
All is going according to my liberal best case scenario. Add the strong DeSantis polling with primary voters in NH and MI, and we definitely have the makings of a GOP split that gives the Dems the advantage in 2024 regardless who the nominee is. And if Trump's key motivation is to stay revenant--along with the benefit of shielding him from prosecution--he'll announce in Sept and save the Dem Senate.
At best this GOP Trump fatigue (which is very real) splits the party enough that a DeSantis nomination results in Trump running third party. That's the best scenario. But Trump as the GOP nominee gives ANY Dem a major advantage. The worst case scenario is a united GOP behind DeSantis or another Jr. fascist.
I do recall Agnew's prose but It indeed was very different then than it is now. Then? We had three networks, CNN and PBS and in reality, they all did a good job of adhering to factual reporting.
Now? We have those same networks but we also have FOX, OAN and NEWSMAX not only not reporting the news based on facts but rather based almost entirely in opinion. Limbaugh was early on reporting opinions dressed as facts and he was careful to never call it "the news. Trump used all of this to start digging under the foundation of fact as a man who had avoided facts and tortured the truth his entire life.
It will be damn hard for the media to "get it right" when much of it doesn't want to at all.
'Zactly, Living in TX I run into these goofballs all the time. Who's gonna stop the US Gov't when they demand the return of all the F16's, F111's and military ground equipment? National Wx Service ops, the THOUSANDS of square miles of US Military bases (both open & closed- which were granted to the states when closed), interstate highways, US Gov't jobs? THEN these whackadoodle states have to replicate all that to protect themselves from Mexico coming in to reclaim what was once theirs. Once again and as almost always, it's all performative. The ironic thing is that many of the most fervent supporters of these scenarios are Veterans.