A BIGLY tip-of-the-hat to Liberal Cynic who has been steadfastly telling us why we shouldn't be feeling doom and gloom for the past week or more. Well done, LC!
"Which raises the question: If 2020 was Dunkirk, and 2022 is North Africa--will 2024 be D-Day? And what do we have to do over the next two years to make our domestic battle against authoritarianism a success?" - Bill Kristol
Best question so far, and now is the time to start coming up with a strategy. No more waiting until the election cycle gets in full swing. Let's stay 2 steps ahead of them going forward, shall we?
It might still be too early to draw firm conclusions, with several important races remaining undecided. But it feels like something of a win for democracy and cooler heads. Both parties had some significant wins and losses. Both sides were on the right and wrong end of some unexpected results. And a number of critical races were more competitive than expected. Ultimately we are getting results that largely confirm the status quo.
What is missing in this national trend is any real indication of voter fraud or other controversy to gin up the populace. It was refreshing to see candidates on the losing side in some contentious states concede quickly and graciously, as if to say that they too are tired of the polarization and constant battles over the process. Let’s hope that this is the start of a long walk back to sanity and acceptance in our electoral process. Time will tell what the final result is, but it feels like we dodged a few bullets. Given the expectations, maybe that is the best and healthiest outcome that we could have hoped for in the short term.
What'd I say about dooming? I SAID NO DOOMING. DOOMING NEVER HELPS.
Remember when abortion wasn't important and it was all gas prices? Remember when Fetterman's debate meant he was goner? Remember when Zeldin was gonna shock the nation by being tough on crime? Well, all that nonsense was just nonsense.
Time for some sober analysis:
THE HOUSE: Unfortunately Republicans probably get it, by narrow margins. It doesn't feel great to lose, but it's quite clear that if McCarthy only has the majority by 10 seats or so it's close to functionally useless. As this hour Dems have flips in places nobody expected, including possibly Lauren Boebert's seat. And the House remains up for grabs again in 2024.
THE SENATE: Is still a toss-up, but Dems still look strong. Fetterman won. Warnock goes to the run-off where he probably wins. Nevada and Arizona are more questionable, and worst-case, the Senate could be 52-48 GOP. Best-case 51-49 Dem. I remain optimistic.
LONG-TERM TAKE-AWAYS:
- Biden and the Democrats look much stronger than everyone thought. Not the clear victors but fighters who defended their turf well. The generic ballot might settle close to even, even as 55% of last night's voters disapproved of Biden. This suggests the Democratic Party brand is actually pretty good.
- Ron DeSantis is pretty much the only Republican who outperforms expectations. That's too bad because -
- Donald Trump is gonna declare soon. And with a God-awful midterm performance like that, Republicans are once again gonna start contemplating that perhaps it's the Republican Party, and Trump himself, who don't understand America. Lastly -
- Abortion as an issue is here and it's bad for Republicans. Really bad. It lost in Kansas before election night. It lost in Michigan, Kentucky, and Montana on election night. And most of those states are pretty red.
Looking back, there have been three political eras of the Biden presidency:
1/21 - 8/21: The Biden honeymoon. American Rescue Plan, mass vaccinations, morning in America!
8/21 - 6/22: The bad year. Dems get only infrastructure. Afghan withdrawal disaster. BBB falls apart. Rampant inflation.
6/22-11/22: Post-Dobbs. Dems find their mojo. Their voters get energized. Gun control, Inflation Reduction Act, Student Loan forgiveness. Midterm overperformance.
Thanks to everyone who voted last night and voted blue. We all held the line.
Kitty litter in schools was not a good closing message! I laughed. That about sums things up.
Amanda Carpenter says, "After two full years of enabling, indulging, and pandering to 2020 election conspiracy theorists, it appears that without Donald Trump on the ballot, Republicans will, by and large, concede their races when the votes don’t tally up in their favor. Although several key races remain too-close-to call, and nutty candidates like Kari Lake or Lauren Boebert, who are still waiting for results, could challenge their losses, that position is not the norm."
To which I reply, "Thank you, fellow citizens, thank you thank you thank you, from the bottom of my heart!"
I don't know if it's obvious to people outside of the medical profession, but pro-lifers, the real pro-lifers, had a win last night when the Montana referendum got voted down. It essentially would have made palliative care for pre-term infants with fatal diseases illegal. Families who opt to carry a child to term, knowing that the prognosis is not good, deserve to make decisions about care for these infants. In my experience, this usually means they want to hold the baby and be a family together as long as possible, not have their baby whisked into the NICU for a series of futile interventions.
Had this passed, women pregnant with babies who had Trisomy 13, 18, or serious abnormalities would have had two options: get an abortion or give birth to a baby that was destined to be treated like a medical pincushion instead of an actual human.
I know Charlie put a lot into the pro-life causes and is probably conflicted on watching these referendums come back, but I hope he can sleep easy on this one knowing that it helps the most pro-life people of all, the people walking the walk and not just talking the talk: families who choses to carry difficult pregnancies to term.
Amen and amen. This was the best no sleep night in memory. Regardless of the final results, small “d” democracy won last night.
This is not a promotional - I sincerely believe the mission of The Bulwark is making an impact. I’m not being corny when I say “Long Live Democracy”. We’ve all got too much invested in this beautiful republic of ours. Last night was a good night, today is a good day, and tomorrow looks a little brighter. For those of us with kids and grandchildren - Dear God, there is still hope for them.
"Imagine being a Republican, and realizing only now, after previously losing the House, Senate, and the presidency, after his losing the popular vote twice, two impeachments and multiple criminal offenses, topped off with a Clorox injection chaser, that you have a "Trump problem." - George Conway
Yes, imagine, because I'm willing to bet that most Republicans still won't get it, and those that do will still offer their quiet acquiescence.
Election denying Republicans declared that the 2020 election was stolen. But, also that their voters need to vote so that the 2024 elections would not be stolen. This naturally rested on the assumption that the 2022 elections would be legitimate, and that their votes mattered. But also told voters that winning the midterms was so inevitable for Republicans, that if Democrats won we can all assume the midterms had been stolen.
I'm really shocked this wasn't a winning message to drum up voter turnout. I mean their motto was essentially "Stop the Stolen Steals by Voting in an Election that's Probably Already Stolen Maybe".
Can we finally put to rest that Dems are unlikeable and unable to message and don't know how to campaign?
And the six MAGA candidates that the Dems "supported" were lost badly. Did it look unseemly? Maybe. But politics isn't softball. We're in it to win it and if MAGA primary voters want to help us win then who are we to stop them?
"Of course Trump will claim all sorts of victory, but he had a craptacular night. His candidates underperformed across the country and the GOP was reminded that he is an electoral boat anchor."
I'd love to hear or see more about his bigly election-watch gala held at Mar-A-Loso last night. One can only hope it had the look and feel of Kari Lake's elite extravaganza in AZ where everyone watched the BIG RED WAVE on big-screens streaming Faux News, absolutely stunned when it never came. Most left by 10pm, and the campaign event had long turned off Faux, not wanting to bum the MAGAts out any further....
Even the "normie" Republicans participated in a campaign to kill 10s of thousands of their own voters via their cynical egging-on of vaccine skepticism last year - I guess to keep the pandemic rolling and make people angry about closures and mandates. And for what... to probably gain 0 seats in a 50/50 senate (maybe even lose one), in a year where we have historically awful inflation.
It's a party of pretty terrible people from top-to-bottom and I look forward to kicking their asses in 2024.
A BIGLY tip-of-the-hat to Liberal Cynic who has been steadfastly telling us why we shouldn't be feeling doom and gloom for the past week or more. Well done, LC!
"Lauren Boebert might lose. (She still could pull it out, but it was sweet typing that sentence.)"
But only half as sweet as reading it, Charlie!
Hi guys! What did I miss?
Oh, here's what I have to say to the doom and gloomers out there: "AHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!"
Ok, sore winner posting is done. ;)
"But the red wave is looking more like a small toxic spill.”
what a delightful choice of words - thank you Mona
"Which raises the question: If 2020 was Dunkirk, and 2022 is North Africa--will 2024 be D-Day? And what do we have to do over the next two years to make our domestic battle against authoritarianism a success?" - Bill Kristol
Best question so far, and now is the time to start coming up with a strategy. No more waiting until the election cycle gets in full swing. Let's stay 2 steps ahead of them going forward, shall we?
Yeah, about last night ...
It might still be too early to draw firm conclusions, with several important races remaining undecided. But it feels like something of a win for democracy and cooler heads. Both parties had some significant wins and losses. Both sides were on the right and wrong end of some unexpected results. And a number of critical races were more competitive than expected. Ultimately we are getting results that largely confirm the status quo.
What is missing in this national trend is any real indication of voter fraud or other controversy to gin up the populace. It was refreshing to see candidates on the losing side in some contentious states concede quickly and graciously, as if to say that they too are tired of the polarization and constant battles over the process. Let’s hope that this is the start of a long walk back to sanity and acceptance in our electoral process. Time will tell what the final result is, but it feels like we dodged a few bullets. Given the expectations, maybe that is the best and healthiest outcome that we could have hoped for in the short term.
To be continued.
Good job, state (I live in PA). Good job, women PA voters. Go away, carpetbaggers!
What'd I say about dooming? I SAID NO DOOMING. DOOMING NEVER HELPS.
Remember when abortion wasn't important and it was all gas prices? Remember when Fetterman's debate meant he was goner? Remember when Zeldin was gonna shock the nation by being tough on crime? Well, all that nonsense was just nonsense.
Time for some sober analysis:
THE HOUSE: Unfortunately Republicans probably get it, by narrow margins. It doesn't feel great to lose, but it's quite clear that if McCarthy only has the majority by 10 seats or so it's close to functionally useless. As this hour Dems have flips in places nobody expected, including possibly Lauren Boebert's seat. And the House remains up for grabs again in 2024.
THE SENATE: Is still a toss-up, but Dems still look strong. Fetterman won. Warnock goes to the run-off where he probably wins. Nevada and Arizona are more questionable, and worst-case, the Senate could be 52-48 GOP. Best-case 51-49 Dem. I remain optimistic.
LONG-TERM TAKE-AWAYS:
- Biden and the Democrats look much stronger than everyone thought. Not the clear victors but fighters who defended their turf well. The generic ballot might settle close to even, even as 55% of last night's voters disapproved of Biden. This suggests the Democratic Party brand is actually pretty good.
- Ron DeSantis is pretty much the only Republican who outperforms expectations. That's too bad because -
- Donald Trump is gonna declare soon. And with a God-awful midterm performance like that, Republicans are once again gonna start contemplating that perhaps it's the Republican Party, and Trump himself, who don't understand America. Lastly -
- Abortion as an issue is here and it's bad for Republicans. Really bad. It lost in Kansas before election night. It lost in Michigan, Kentucky, and Montana on election night. And most of those states are pretty red.
Looking back, there have been three political eras of the Biden presidency:
1/21 - 8/21: The Biden honeymoon. American Rescue Plan, mass vaccinations, morning in America!
8/21 - 6/22: The bad year. Dems get only infrastructure. Afghan withdrawal disaster. BBB falls apart. Rampant inflation.
6/22-11/22: Post-Dobbs. Dems find their mojo. Their voters get energized. Gun control, Inflation Reduction Act, Student Loan forgiveness. Midterm overperformance.
Thanks to everyone who voted last night and voted blue. We all held the line.
Kitty litter in schools was not a good closing message! I laughed. That about sums things up.
Amanda Carpenter says, "After two full years of enabling, indulging, and pandering to 2020 election conspiracy theorists, it appears that without Donald Trump on the ballot, Republicans will, by and large, concede their races when the votes don’t tally up in their favor. Although several key races remain too-close-to call, and nutty candidates like Kari Lake or Lauren Boebert, who are still waiting for results, could challenge their losses, that position is not the norm."
To which I reply, "Thank you, fellow citizens, thank you thank you thank you, from the bottom of my heart!"
I don't know if it's obvious to people outside of the medical profession, but pro-lifers, the real pro-lifers, had a win last night when the Montana referendum got voted down. It essentially would have made palliative care for pre-term infants with fatal diseases illegal. Families who opt to carry a child to term, knowing that the prognosis is not good, deserve to make decisions about care for these infants. In my experience, this usually means they want to hold the baby and be a family together as long as possible, not have their baby whisked into the NICU for a series of futile interventions.
Had this passed, women pregnant with babies who had Trisomy 13, 18, or serious abnormalities would have had two options: get an abortion or give birth to a baby that was destined to be treated like a medical pincushion instead of an actual human.
I know Charlie put a lot into the pro-life causes and is probably conflicted on watching these referendums come back, but I hope he can sleep easy on this one knowing that it helps the most pro-life people of all, the people walking the walk and not just talking the talk: families who choses to carry difficult pregnancies to term.
Amen and amen. This was the best no sleep night in memory. Regardless of the final results, small “d” democracy won last night.
This is not a promotional - I sincerely believe the mission of The Bulwark is making an impact. I’m not being corny when I say “Long Live Democracy”. We’ve all got too much invested in this beautiful republic of ours. Last night was a good night, today is a good day, and tomorrow looks a little brighter. For those of us with kids and grandchildren - Dear God, there is still hope for them.
"Imagine being a Republican, and realizing only now, after previously losing the House, Senate, and the presidency, after his losing the popular vote twice, two impeachments and multiple criminal offenses, topped off with a Clorox injection chaser, that you have a "Trump problem." - George Conway
Yes, imagine, because I'm willing to bet that most Republicans still won't get it, and those that do will still offer their quiet acquiescence.
Election denying Republicans declared that the 2020 election was stolen. But, also that their voters need to vote so that the 2024 elections would not be stolen. This naturally rested on the assumption that the 2022 elections would be legitimate, and that their votes mattered. But also told voters that winning the midterms was so inevitable for Republicans, that if Democrats won we can all assume the midterms had been stolen.
I'm really shocked this wasn't a winning message to drum up voter turnout. I mean their motto was essentially "Stop the Stolen Steals by Voting in an Election that's Probably Already Stolen Maybe".
On a more serious note:
Can we finally put to rest that Dems are unlikeable and unable to message and don't know how to campaign?
And the six MAGA candidates that the Dems "supported" were lost badly. Did it look unseemly? Maybe. But politics isn't softball. We're in it to win it and if MAGA primary voters want to help us win then who are we to stop them?
"Of course Trump will claim all sorts of victory, but he had a craptacular night. His candidates underperformed across the country and the GOP was reminded that he is an electoral boat anchor."
I'd love to hear or see more about his bigly election-watch gala held at Mar-A-Loso last night. One can only hope it had the look and feel of Kari Lake's elite extravaganza in AZ where everyone watched the BIG RED WAVE on big-screens streaming Faux News, absolutely stunned when it never came. Most left by 10pm, and the campaign event had long turned off Faux, not wanting to bum the MAGAts out any further....
Even the "normie" Republicans participated in a campaign to kill 10s of thousands of their own voters via their cynical egging-on of vaccine skepticism last year - I guess to keep the pandemic rolling and make people angry about closures and mandates. And for what... to probably gain 0 seats in a 50/50 senate (maybe even lose one), in a year where we have historically awful inflation.
It's a party of pretty terrible people from top-to-bottom and I look forward to kicking their asses in 2024.